NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk (NSCR) Model 2012(MSC-25352-1)
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NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk (NSCR) Model 2012
NASA Space Cancer Risk Model (NSCR-2012) is an integration of various components of the cancer risk projection model for assessment of radiation induced Cancer risks for humans in space. Exposure to the solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) present cancer risks to astronauts. The NASA Johnson Space Center Space Radiation Program (JSC-SRP) has developed the NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk (NSCR) model to estimate cancer risks and overall uncertainties due to various factors that enter into risk estimates. NSCR utilizes the latest analysis of human radio-epidemiology for low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation and cancer and survival rates in the U.S. population and a population of never-smokers. NASA specific radiation quality factors based on particle track structure are defined. Models of space environments and radiation transport are used to determine organ exposures behind spacecraft shielding. NSCR makes projections for never-smokers which are shown to lead to reduced radiation cancer risk compared to others. NSCR uses Monte-Carlo propopagation of errors in various factors that enter into risk projections to determine overall uncertainties in radiation cancer projections. The NSCR Graphical User Interface (GUI) provides seamless integration of input and output manipulations, which are required for operations of the sub-modules: HZETRN, BRYNTRN, SUMSHIELD, and the Cancer probabilistic response models. The main applications envisioned are International Space Station (ISS) Missions, and planning for future exploration missions to the moon, Near Earth Objects (NEO) or Mars. Tissues specific probabilities for cancer incidence or death are evaluated for various criteria including: 1) adults at different ages of exposures, 2) males or females, and 3) population of never-smokers or the US average population. Probability distribution functions (PDFs) are used to describe factor uncertainties, and 95% confidence levels estimated.
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