Search

The two-dimension Probability of collision (Pc) calculation module set is one of the Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Software Development Kit (SDK). It implements the calculation of the probability of collision of two satellites given the state estimates and covariances, following the methodology of Foster and Estes (1992).

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has recently developed new algorithms and software to estimate collision rates and probabilities between Earth-orbiting satellites. The formulation entitled Expected Collision Rates for Tracked Satellites provides an innovative method to estimate collision risks based on the expected collision rate and number of collisions, which are both closely related to the collision probability. The new formulation accounts for the non-linear orbital motion of the satellites, and derives expressions that form the basis for Monte Carlo simulations, as well as semi-analytical approximations applicable to single- and multi-encounter interactions.